Taking China Down a Peg

One of the United States’ greatest concerns in international relations is the rise of China. At this point, most agree that of the world’s great powers, the U.S. is first, China is second, and everyone else follows. These perceptions of China as a growing, strong country are relatively uniform and undisputed. However, two articles, one from Foreign Policy and another from The Economist, argue that China might not be as strong as it’s cracked up to be due to an economic slowdown and an aging population.

In his Foreign Policy article, “Everything You Think You Know About China is Wrong”, Minxie Pie provides a laundry list of China’s recent problems and how they signal faltering strength. He writes, “The latest news from Beijing is indicative of weakness: a persistent slowdown of economic growth, a glut of unsold goods, rising bad bank loans, a bursting real estate bubble, and a vicious power struggle at the top, coupled with unending political scandals.” Perhaps China just isn’t a strong as we think it is. Their growth was unsustainable, they are having some of the same problems we had (bad loans, housing bubble, etc.), and their government is corrupt. Beyond China’s authoritarian government and human rights violations, which we know well, this information is not very publicized. This is not the story Americans hear from the U.S. government or media. China is always characterized as formidable, threatening, and ascending. How come? Pie puts forth a couple reasons: first, the U.S. thinks of China as even more of a threat because its economy is doing poorly. It’s hard to care about China’s growth rate dipping when it is still higher than yours. Second, China portrays themselves as a great power, aggressive and mighty both economically and militarily, and we basically accept it. They talk the talk, and the U.S. listens attentively.

In addition to the number of problems Pie presents, the article “China’s Achilles Heel” from The Economist points out yet another: an aging population, claiming that demography is China’s “deadly point of unseen weakness.” Despite America’s aging “baby-boomer” population, which is beginning to place a strain on the Social Security system, China has it much worse. They have a lower fertility rate than the U.S. and are facing a decline in not just population growth but population itself. Moreover, there are debates over whether or not China is even a developed country. Though it has the second largest economy in the world, China’s GDP per capita is similar to that of a poor, developing country. Though its cities have impressive infrastructure, some rural areas lack basic sanitation. China may not necessarily have the means to sustain such an old and dependent population. One quote sums up this problem: “Unlike the rest of the developed world, China will grow old before it gets rich.”

Today, the United States sees China as its greatest competitor, and why not? China is projected to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. China is now also the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, which, though terrible for the environment, indicates a pretty good amount of productivity. However, the reports of China’s force have been greatly exaggerated. Their economy is growing, but more slowly now, and has been hampered by the recent worldwide recession, economic bubbles, and corruption. Their population is aging at a nearly unfathomable rate, which will stymie growth, development, and productivity. Though powerful, China may not pose as much of a threat as the U.S. thinks.

Economic issues article: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/29/everything_you_think_you_know_about_china_is_wrong

Aging population article: http://www.economist.com/node/21553056